The government purchase Diaoyu Islands this farce upgrade is further damage to Sino-Japanese trade.
Rare earth exporters told reporters on September 18, the Diaoyu Islands, the storm may make China's rare earth exports to Japan again facing stagnation. Two months after the September 2010 and Japan over the Diaoyu Islands collision, not re-exports to Japan of rare earth, Japanese public opinion at the time since the restoration of Sino-Japanese diplomatic relations, the economic sanctions imposed on Japan for the first time.
Huang Teng, general manager of the well-known Sino-Japanese coal trade the long trade consulting company in Beijing judgment, originally scheduled long association negotiations held in October in Hangzhou Sino-Japanese thermal coal may also be canceled due to the Diaoyu Island incident, once the matter honored in the day steam coal year contracts 30 years for the first time in vain.
Foreign trade system sources, China Japan's economic sanctions are actually divided into two parts, the part of private voluntary boycott of Japanese goods, which will hit the Japanese car exports to China, digital home appliances and electronic products; second part of the official sanctions, from the overall situation of the Japanese economic and trade point of view, the official is expected to continue to exercise restraint, even with economic sanctions, is expected to not be such as automobiles, home appliances categories of goods shot, but may limit the products of Rare Earth, crude oil, coal and other resources exports to Japan.
Exports of rare earth and other resources may change
In fact, China's rare earth exports have declined. Customs statistics show that 1-July export volume of China's rare earth ore, metals and compounds decreased by 36.7% to 21,700 tons. , July China's exports of rare earth ore, metals and compounds of 3746 tons, a decrease of 23.6% compared to the same period last year.
Japan is one of the major markets of China's rare earth in 2009, more than 9 percent of Japan's rare earth from China. Rare earths are essential raw materials of the electronics industry.
Jiangxi Ganzhou a rare earth exporters rare earth orders this year there have been substantially reduced, mainly from Japan and other major importers of rare earth demand began to weaken in the context of global economic slowdown. Rare earth prices fell sharply in 2011, China's rare earth export quotas for 2011 did not even run out.
He speculated that the follow-up for several months because of political factors, the rare-earth exports to Japan will be stagnant collision in Japan in 2010, the company's rare earth exports to Japan has stagnated for about two months. "Because commodity inspection and other various reasons, can not be clearance," he said.
Song Zhiyong analysis, this point of view, to limit exports of rare earths to Japan short-term impact is more limited, a Japanese, while not producing rare earth, rare earth reserves are adequate sanctions in the short term is difficult to cause substantial towards Japan's electronics industry, the Ministry of Commerce, Institute of Asian and African researcher at impact; two, Japan is also to avoid over-reliance on Chinese rare earth 2010 constantly seek outside China's rare earth imports also developing electronic components using rare earth.
According to Japanese statistics, in the first half of 2012, the total amount of rare earth metals Japan imports from China to 3007 tons, accounted for only 49.3% of the total rare earth imports, this value fell to less than 50% for the first time since 2000. In 2011, Japan's imports from China Rare Earth less than in the previous year by 34% to 15,400 tons.
However, the rare earth resources in Japan for most of cerium, neodymium, and other "light rare earth (to ensure that Japan's domestic demand for six to 80%), but the permanent magnets used in electric vehicles, energy-saving appliances engine with dysprosium elements, such as heavy rare earth ", Japan's dependence on China is still more than 90%.
Sino-Japanese thermal coal long association fear uncertainty
Sino-Japanese thermal coal negotiations has been that with a quasi-official nature, since 1978 a long-term agreement continued without interruption thermal coal supply this year may no longer be able to continue.
Contributed to this long association in the long-term agreement Trade Commission and the Committee of the medium-and long-term trade agreement, once a year met once since the 2010 collision in Japan canceled once.
In fact, China's resource protection afterburner makes the Chinese government began to cut coal export quotas since 2008 or so, the warming of the Chinese domestic market demand makes China in 2009, reversed from a net exporter of coal to a net importer. This context, the date of steam coal in the number of long-term agreements have been decreasing from the peak period of three or four thousand tons last year, has been reduced to just over 60 million tons.
Huang Teng said, Japan does not produce coal, taking into account the distance Japan more recent design coal trade constitute avoid over-dependence on China's resources, "Otherwise, once out of the situation, other countries, thermal coal is difficult to be filled in a short period of time was on. "
In recent years, China has reduced coal exports, making the Japanese had more thermal coal imports from Australia and other places, not deep dependence on coal demand in China, the peak of the Japanese demand for Chinese thermal coal exports accounted for about two to three percent.
Continuing decline in trade with Japan
According to the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) released the 2011 Sino-Japanese trade statistics report, according to the Japanese side, the Japanese trade volume in 2011 than the previous year increased by 14.3% to $ 344.9 billion, of which $ 183.4 billion of imports from China, an increase of 20%, exports to China of $ 161.4 billion, an increase of 8.3%, all three-record level.
According to the to JETRO data provided 20.6%, Sino-Japanese trade volume accounted for the proportion of total trade in Japan. According to statistics, in 2011, Japan in mainland China has 2,487 non-manufacturing enterprises, accounting for 24.4% of the Japanese overseas non-manufacturing enterprises 10187.
China is Japan's largest trading partner, after the 2011 earthquake in Japan, Japan has lagged behind ASEAN is China's fourth largest trading partner.
In fact, before the storm in the Diaoyu Islands, the Sino-Japanese trade has continued declining. Chinese Customs statistics show that from January to August this year, the Sino-Japanese bilateral trade value of $ 218.7 billion, a decrease of 1.4%.
Foreign trade system, told reporters that the Sino-Japanese contradictions upgrade will make the Sino-Japanese trade deepening decline, Canon, Panasonic, and other key parts factory in China is still in Japan purchasing the common parts procurement in China, the recent number of Japanese-owned factories temporarily shutdown may affect subsequent imports of related parts. Previously due to the impact of the global economic slowdown, imports of these commodities have emerged decline.
Song Zhiyong said, The Island purchase the farce of the Sino-Japanese trade remains to be seen, the event will be fermented to which step is still unknown. He said, taking into account the trade order cycle, the events will be part of the show in the China Customs statistics, in November or even December.